N. CHATZINIKOLAOU: Good morning Minister.
N. PANAGIOTOPOULOS: Good morning to your listeners, to you and to Mr Dellatolas.
A. DELLATOLAS: Mr Panagiotopoulos, sanctions were imposed yesterday by the European Union, which were characterised by many as “a slap on the wrist”. What does an embargo on weapons practically mean in terms of pressure on Erdogan?
N. PANAGIOTOPOULOS: Europe is finally deciding to take measures against the unrestrained aggressive conduct of Turkey and President Erdogan. Of course, the weapons’ embargo will not stop the Turkish invasion in Syria, but it is going to make them consider what happens when a state’s actions have worldwide consequences. I believe that we must state as a Government -and me personally- our satisfaction for the stance held by the European Union.
There certainly is an issue regarding the effectiveness of sanctions and of the condemning rhetoric against this aggressive stance and there will always be. This remains to be seen. But if we combine this stance of the European Union with the sanctions imposed by the USA -especially when the sum of the political world backed these sanctions and leaned on President Trump, who had proclaimed the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, thus paving the way for this decision to be taken by Turkey- then I think that something seems to be happening. The whole international community rises and registers the outcry against the International Law’s violation by Turkey and the invasion in Syria.
Europe’s action was mainly caused by the illegal drilling activity of the Turks in the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone. That was the starting point for the process and the objections raised in yesterday’s Meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs.
The steps taken by the USA were mainly caused by the invasion in Syria. The actions of both sides indicate the same thing; that we are now witnessing some kind of reaction.
N. CHATZINIKOLAOU: Do you think that the imposition of sanctions on Turkey due to the violation of the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone is probable? Is there a chance for that to happen or will Europe turn a blind eye once more?
N. PANAGIOTOPOULOS: The reaction of Europe was certainly not the one we hoped for, but that can be said, more or less, for all issues. Europe seems a bit dysfunctional, a bit hesitant, a bit slow in terms of decisively condemning the illegal and wrongful conduct of actors like Turkey.
Besides, we are not talking about recent developments. For many months now, Turkey has been acting in a way which directly and maliciously affects an EU member-state.
N. CHATZINIKOLAOU: Europe had decided to impose sanctions months ago, but the decision was not implemented…
N. PANAGIOTOPOULOS: So this hesitation poses an issue. But thereafter, there seem to be limits in everything and something appears to be happening. You must take into consideration the French individual reactions. They decided to send a frigate and a submarine to the contested Gas Field Block 7. The Italians will possibly do the same. I have information that an Italian submarine is heading for or is already at Block 7. So we are witnessing an international reaction. The point is to put a stop to this aggressiveness. We will see how things turn out. I am not sure that Turkey will be intercepted, but I believe that the development of the military operations will expose Turkey’s quandaries in Syria.
A. DELLATOLAS: The fact that Turkey ignores the small and great powers and the international fora, without being substantially hindered -you said the same thing using a careful wording but that is the truth- doesn’t it give it confidence to continue the challenges in the Aegean but also at the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone?
N. PANAGIOTOPOULOS: Yes, that is the situation so far. Turkey operates exclusively based on the law of the jungle, which favours especially the one who is powerful in military terms. Thereafter there is a limit in everything.
If no limits are set then we are dealing with submissiveness and acquiescence of the International Community towards an uncontrolled actor who is operating unrestrained and not only threatens but also proceeds to acts of aggression or directly to acts of war. We will see where this will end. I believe that it has to end somewhere, as long as international actors do not turn their backs on the issue and decide to deal with the matter. And it seems that they are starting to do so.
A. DELLATOLAS: “Die Welt” is reporting today another eventuality which might cause even more confusion. What will happen if Assad attacks Turkey, entangles Syria in the war and Erdogan asks for NATO’s assistance.
N. PANAGIOTOPOULOS: Such a development would indeed complicate an already complicated situation even more. From the look of things, the Kurds have now turned to the official state of Syria, meaning Assad, and the Syrian army is deployed to defend cities in northern Syria from a potential Turkish attack, in the buffer zone which Erdogan wants to establish.
I do not think that the Turks will proceed to attack cities now controlled by the Syrian army. I do not think that this was their strategic objective, initially. I believe that the Turks will try to deploy this buffer zone in northern Syria and then we will have to wait and see where they are going to stop. They will probably not dare to occupy large cities, because there the Kurdish resistance will be more organised, but also from a military point of view it will be more difficult for the Turks to operate in conditions of guerilla warfare in urban environment. So, their intention seems to be the occupation of territory. We are talking about a flat plain, without mountains or large cities, favouring the Turks in the battlefield.
I am sure that we will soon learn of Turkish casualties in these operations. You are bound to suffer losses when you engage in war. Thereafter, we will see how much the toll will rise regarding these losses.
N. CHATZINIKOLAOU: Tell me please, regarding armaments, everybody has been worried for some time about the eventuality of Turkey acquiring the F-35. The stance of Erdogan in international affairs seems to have recently annoyed Washington, leading to the halting of this process for Turkey. Is there a chance that our country will manage to drive a wedge between them and gain benefits regarding the F-35 programme? I am asking this because we all know that 5th generation aircrafts offer a strategic advantage at this stage.
N. PANAGIOTOPOULOS: Our country will certainly have to begin the process of acquiring a 5th generation aircraft, at some point. The constant effort for the country’s weapon systems’ upgrade makes the above imperative. Consequently, we will deal with this eventuality in the future. At the moment there is a favourable circumstance and a “window” of opportunity, so that the country may express its interest, but not immediately proceed to the acquisition of this aircraft.
We have to take many more steps and I will try to explain why. Due to the S-400 missiles acquisition from Russia, it was decided that Turkey would be excluded from the coproduction programme of the F-35, as a penalty.
Turkey is ousted from this perspective, something which was an American decision, due to the acquisition of the Russian missiles by Erdogan. What would be the meaning of this? Could Greece replace Turkey? It is a probability currently examined. Of course, in the context of the strategic relation with the USA, the capabilities for dialogue with the Americans, to that end, are clearly upgraded.
Thereafter, for Greece to be able to acquire the next generation aircraft -this advanced weapon system with capabilities which I cannot analyse at the moment, due to their technical nature, but which certainly upgrade the capabilities of the Air Force- two basic steps must be taken.
Proceed to the upgrade of the F-16 that are already at our disposal, to the Viper variant. The Viper is an even more advanced aircraft based on what we already have and it bridges the gap between the 4th and the 5th generation of fighter aircrafts and this ambitious programme of strategic importance for our Air Force must be conducted at the facilities of the Hellenic Aerospace Industry.
Soon we will submit the pertinent contracts to the Parliament, regarding the revival of the Hellenic Aerospace Industry through this programme and we hope that everything will go well, which I believe they will, because everything has been set up to a great extent. Just the final decisions remain and the authorisation for the agreement by the Parliament, to pave the way for the Hellenic Aerospace Industry to support itself, because now it faces problems but it also has the chance to stand straight, proceed to the upgrade of our own F-16, with many sub-programmes which will benefit it, because we are dealing with infrastructures manufactured within its facilities, to follow through with this programme, maybe attract similar contracts for the upgrade of fighter aircrafts, thus becoming a regional and competitive pillar of our Defence Industry. Thereafter, we will decide if we are going to proceed to the acquisition of next generation aircrafts.
These steps must be taken one by one. If we do this then I believe that all paths will be open.
